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UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2026
Catchweight
VS
91%
Steveson
9%
Ellison
Win Probability
GS
Gable Steveson
3 – 0
26 yrs
CFR 64
Elisha
Elisha Ellison
"The Snack Panther"
5 – 2
Well-Rounded29 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'0"
CFR 6
S
Gable
Steveson
To Win
1.09
1/11
Best Β· 1xBet
-0.7% EDGE
Bet at Dafabet β†’
12 books quoted
18+ Β· BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis Β· live news & data

Edge: Steveson

Olympic gold meets UFC debut β€” Steveson is the biggest favourite in UFC history, and anything less than dominance will be considered a failure.

Gable Steveson needs no introduction. Olympic gold medallist in freestyle wrestling at Tokyo 2021, two-time NCAA Division I heavyweight champion, four-time Big Ten champion β€” the 26-year-old is the most decorated wrestler to transition to MMA since perhaps Daniel Cormier, and the hype machine is running at full capacity. His professional MMA record of 3-0 with three first-round knockouts is fasci…

Steveson intel

Steveson is 3-0 with three first-round knockout wins in his professional MMA career. Olympic freestyle wrestling gold medallist (2021), two-time NCAA champion. At 26, he's young for heavyweight and has significant room for growth. Training at a top camp and has been focused entirely on MMA since leaving amateur wrestling.

Ellison intel

Ellison is 5-2 with minimal UFC experience. His coach has questioned Steveson's MMA credentials, but that's standard underdog talk. Has a reach advantage (198.1cm) but lacks the power, speed, or grappling to exploit it against an Olympic-level wrestler. Enters as the biggest betting underdog in UFC history.

Key angles

Steveson's UFC debut β€” the most hyped heavyweight prospect in recent memory

Three first-round KOs suggest Steveson may favour striking over his Olympic wrestling

Biggest betting favourite in UFC history (-4000 at some books)

International Fight Week spotlight adds extra pressure and opportunity

This fight is about HOW Steveson wins, not whether he wins

Risk flags

Steveson has never been tested in MMA β€” his reaction to adversity is completely unknown, though Ellison is unlikely to provide it

DAFABETBet on this fight Β· Competitive MMA odds
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Steveson
Ellison
Physical Matchup
Height Β· Reach Β· Age Β· Stance
Height
6'0"
Reach
78"
26+
Age
29
β€”
Stance
Orthodox
Steveson
Ellison
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
β€”
6.2
β€”
Performance Avg
0.0
β€”
Quality of Victory
0
β€”
Momentum Score
0
Steveson
Ellison
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
β€”
0.2
β€”
Strike Accuracy
33%
β€”
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Steveson
Ellison
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
πŸ₯Š
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Steveson
Ellison
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
β€”
78
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
β€”
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
β€”
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
β€”
Strikes absorbed / min
β€”
1/3 fights
Chin rating based on
2/7 fights
Steveson
Ellison
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance β€” most recent weighted 30%
β€”
0
Upcoming
Last 5
Upcoming
L Β· KO Β· R1
Steveson
Ellison
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
β€”
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar β€” 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Steveson
Ellison
Striking0.0 / 0.0Volume0.0 / 0.0Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
β€”
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
β€”
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
β€”
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
β€”
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
β€”
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
β€”
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Steveson
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Ellison
Ellison
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD2BODY4LEGS29 absorbed

Steveson Β· Last 1

Upcoming
Elisha Ellison
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Β· 2026-07

Ellison Β· Last 2

Upcoming
Gable Steveson
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 Β· 2026-07
L Β· KO Β· R1
Brando PericicRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes Β· 2025-09

News & Media

Gable Steveson Β· Elisha Ellison
← Back to fights
Ellison
Elisha
Ellison
To Win
13.50
25/2
Best Β· BetOnline.ag
+1.6% EDGE
Bet at Dafabet β†’
12 books quoted
18+ Β· BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG
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