UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Macau, China
30 May 2026
Catchweight
VS
15%
Asakura
85%
Smotherman
Win Probability
Kai
Kai Asakura
21 – 6
5'8"69" reachOrthodox32 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 6
Cameron
Cameron Smotherman
"The Baby-Faced Killa"
12 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide28 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"
CFR 34

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Smotherman

A battle of contrasting styles as Kai Asakura and Cameron Smotherman clash on the UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo card

Kai Asakura (21-6) meets Cameron Smotherman (12-6) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo card. Both fighters bring well-rounded skillsets that should produce a technically interesting contest. The CFR gap tells a clear story — Cameron Smotherman's rating significantly outpaces Kai Asakura's, suggesting a meaningful talent disparity. The model give…

Asakura intel

Kai Asakura (21-6) carries a CFR of 6.1 with a chin rating of 76 and momentum score of 0. Has been struggling in recent outings.

Smotherman intel

Cameron Smotherman (12-6) carries a CFR of 33.8 with a chin rating of 96 and momentum score of 40. Has been struggling in recent outings.

Key angles

Cameron Smotherman's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Cameron Smotherman's momentum advantage reflects superior recent form

The low confidence rating suggests a close fight

The model gives Cameron Smotherman a 57.3% win probability

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Kai Asakura has a legitimate path to victory

Asakura
Smotherman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
69"
Reach
69"
32
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Asakura
Smotherman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
6.1
33.8
0.0
Performance Avg
28.3
0
Quality of Victory
25
0
Momentum Score
40
Asakura
Smotherman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
1.3
27%
Strike Accuracy
34%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Asakura
Smotherman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Asakura
Smotherman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/18 fights
Asakura
Smotherman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Asakura
Smotherman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Asakura
Smotherman
Striking0.0 / 0.7Volume0.0 / 8.7Grappling0.0 / 2.4Wrestling0.0 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Asakura
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Smotherman
Asakura
Attacking
11HEAD0BODY1LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY1LEGS12 absorbed
Smotherman
Attacking
52HEAD21BODY2LEGS75 landed
Absorbing
35HEAD8BODY3LEGS46 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Asakura targets the head (92% of attacks) — Smotherman absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Smotherman targets the head (69% of attacks) — Asakura absorbs 83% of strikes there

Asakura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0103.4L2.8L2024-122025-08
WinLossTrend

Smotherman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.2W6.1L6.2L2024-102025-052025-06
WinLossTrend

Asakura · Last 3

Upcoming
Cameron Smotherman
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R2
Tim ElliottRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Sub · R2
Alexandre PantojaRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12

Smotherman · Last 4

Upcoming
Kai Asakura
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Serhiy SideyRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Jake HadleyRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10

News & Media

Kai Asakura · Cameron Smotherman
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