UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
40%
Bolanos
60%
Jr.
Win Probability
Gaston
Gaston Bolanos
"The Dreamkiller"
8 – 5
5'7"69" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 38
MA
Michael Aswell Jr.
"The Texas Kid"
11 – 4
Knockout Artist25 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Jr.

A battle of contrasting styles as Gaston Bolanos and Michael Aswell Jr. clash on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card

Gaston Bolanos (8-5) meets Michael Aswell Jr. (11-4) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card. The classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic defines this matchup, with Michael Aswell Jr. wanting to keep it standing and Gaston Bolanos looking to take it to the mat. The CFR gap tells a clear story — Michael Aswell Jr.'s rating significantly outpaces Gast…

Bolanos intel

Gaston Bolanos (8-5) carries a CFR of 38.1 with a chin rating of 66 and momentum score of 56. Recent results have been mixed.

Jr. intel

Michael Aswell Jr. (11-4) carries a CFR of 56.5 with a chin rating of 96 and momentum score of 43. Has been struggling in recent outings.

Key angles

Michael Aswell Jr.'s superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Michael Aswell Jr.'s striking superiority should control the stand-up game

Gaston Bolanos's chin vulnerability could be exploited

Michael Aswell Jr.'s high finish rate makes a stoppage likely

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Gaston Bolanos has a legitimate path to victory

Bolanos
Jr.
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
69"
33
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bolanos
Jr.
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
56.5
35.0
Performance Avg
49.3
25
Quality of Victory
60
56
Momentum Score
43
Bolanos
Jr.
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
2.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Bolanos
Jr.
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bolanos
Jr.
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/13 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Bolanos
Jr.
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
43
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Bolanos
Jr.
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bolanos
Jr.
Striking1.0 / 10.0Volume9.0 / 0.7Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Bolanos
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Jr.
Bolanos
Attacking
27HEAD10BODY9LEGS46 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD4BODY1LEGS42 absorbed
Jr.
Attacking
80HEAD12BODY1LEGS93 landed
Absorbing
62HEAD20BODY5LEGS87 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bolanos targets the head (59% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Jr. targets the head (86% of attacks) — Bolanos absorbs 88% of strikes there

Bolanos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W4.4L4.5W3.3L2023-042024-012024-112025-05
WinLossTrend

Jr. · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0105.5L5.1W7.3L2025-052025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Bolanos · Last 5

Upcoming
Michael Aswell Jr.
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Sub · R2
Quang LeRating 3.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Cortavious RomiousRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Marcus McGheeRating 4.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Aaron PhillipsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Jr. · Last 4

Upcoming
Gaston Bolanos
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Luke RileyRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Lucas AlmeidaRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Bolaji OkiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05

News & Media

Gaston Bolanos · Michael Aswell Jr.
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