Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr. — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Las Vegas, USA

20 Jun 2026

Catchweight

40%

Bolanos

60%

Jr.

Win Probability

Gaston Bolanos

"The Dreamkiller"

8 – 5

5'7"69" reachOrthodox33 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 38

Michael Aswell Jr.

"The Texas Kid"

11 – 4

Knockout Artist25 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"

CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Jr.

Pure striker versus pure points fighter in a featherweight prelim with finishing implications.

Michael Aswell Jr. is a striking purist — style score of 10.0, zero grappling, zero wrestling, and a 100% finish rate. The model rates him as the clear favourite at 56.5 CFR versus Bolanos's 38.1. Bolanos is a fighter who has been around the UFC for a while, accumulating more decisions than highlights, and his momentum of 55.6 suggests adequate but not exceptional form. Aswell should be able to cl…

Bolanos intel

Bolanos is experienced but his 0% finish rate and modest CFR make him a developmental matchup rather than a serious threat.

Jr. intel

Aswell is a finisher who operates entirely on the feet. His 100% finish rate is extraordinary and he enters with good momentum.

Key angles

When Aswell lands the overhand, does Bolanos survive?

Risk flags

Bolanos's experience could allow him to weather early storms and work the scorecards

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Bolanos

Jr.

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'7"

Height

+5'8"

69"

Reach

69"

Age

+25

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Bolanos

Jr.

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

38.1

56.5

35.0

Performance Avg

49.3

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Bolanos

Jr.

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

0.8

2.0

46%

Strike Accuracy

43%

1.0

Striking Style Score (/10)

10.0

0 KOs

KO Finishes

1 KOs

Bolanos

Jr.

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

2.4

/ 10

0.0

/ 10

1.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Bolanos

Jr.

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

3 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

5/13 fights

Chin rating based on

4/15 fights

Bolanos

Jr.

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Upcoming

L · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

L · Dec · R3

Bolanos

Jr.

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

100%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bolanos

Jr.

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

10.0

2.4

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.0

1.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

1.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

8.0

9.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

0.7

Bolanos

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Jr.

Bolanos

Attacking

46 landed

Absorbing

42 absorbed

Jr.

Attacking

93 landed

Absorbing

87 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Bolanos targets the head (59% of attacks) — Jr. absorbs 71% of strikes there

🎯Jr. targets the head (86% of attacks) — Bolanos absorbs 88% of strikes there

Bolanos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2

WinLossTrend

Jr. · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0

WinLossTrend

Bolanos · Last 5

Upcoming

Michael Aswell Jr.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

L · Sub · R2

Quang LeRating 3.3

Submission

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W · Dec · R3

Cortavious RomiousRating 4.5

Decision

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L · KO · R2

Marcus McGheeRating 4.4

KO/TKO

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W · Dec · R3

Aaron PhillipsRating 4.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Jr. · Last 4

Upcoming

Gaston Bolanos

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

L · Dec · R3

Luke RileyRating 7.3

Decision

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W · KO · R1

Lucas AlmeidaRating 5.1

KO/TKO

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L · Dec · R3

Bolaji OkiRating 5.5

Decision

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News & Media

Gaston Bolanos · Michael Aswell Jr.

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