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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
Las Vegas, USA
7 Nov 2026
Welterweight
VS
54%
Bonfim
46%
Brady
Win Probability
Gabriel
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
191
6'1"72" reachOrthodox29 yrs5-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 68
Sean
Sean Brady
192
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Bonfim

Two of the best grapplers at welterweight, near-identical submission scores, and the man with the better chin has won six in a row.

The shared opponent here is Belal Muhammad, and the two results could not be further apart. Muhammad stopped Sean Brady in the second round in October 2022. Gabriel Bonfim beat Muhammad over five rounds in June this year. That is four years of difference and one common name, and it is the cleanest evidence available in a fight between two men who do almost exactly the same thing. Because they do.…

Bonfim intel

Bonfim (19-1) has won six straight, beating Belal Muhammad over five rounds in June and stopping Randy Brown in the second round in November 2025. His only recorded defeat is a second-round TKO to Nicolas Dalby in November 2023.

Brady intel

Brady (19-2) beat Joaquin Buckley on the cards in May after Michael Morales — rated 76.5 — knocked him out in the first round in November 2025. His fourth-round submission of Leon Edwards in March 2025 remains the best single result in either man's file.

Key angles

Bonfim beat Belal Muhammad; Muhammad knocked Brady out in 2022

A 22-point chin-rating gap in Bonfim's favour

Brady leads all three grappling categories, but by fractions

Bonfim's six-fight win streak against a 33-year-old who was knocked out ten months ago

7.6cm of height for Bonfim at identical reach

Risk flags

Brady's submission of Leon Edwards shows he can finish anyone if the scramble goes his way

Two elite grapplers can neutralise each other entirely and turn this into a fifteen-minute stalemate

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Bonfim
Brady
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
72"
29+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bonfim
Brady
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.8
57.4
60.5
Performance Avg
53.7
43
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
84
Bonfim
Brady
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
3.2
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
6.6
Style: Pressure
5.6
5.2
Style: Volume
6.1
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bonfim
Brady
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.5
/ 10
4.9
/ 10
3.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.4
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
3
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bonfim
Brady
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
9/20 fights
Chin rating based on
12/21 fights
Bonfim
Brady
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
84
5-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
Bonfim
Brady
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
44%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bonfim
Brady
Striking3.2 / 1.6Volume5.2 / 6.1Grappling4.5 / 4.9Wrestling3.1 / 3.4Submission4.3 / 4.4Pressure6.6 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.9
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
Bonfim
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Brady
Bonfim
Attacking
105HEAD19BODY24LEGS148 landed
Absorbing
66HEAD29BODY24LEGS119 absorbed
Brady
Attacking
143HEAD5BODY33LEGS181 landed
Absorbing
130HEAD21BODY19LEGS170 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bonfim targets the head (71% of attacks) — Brady absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Brady targets the head (79% of attacks) — Bonfim absorbs 55% of strikes there

Bonfim · Last 5

Upcoming
Sean Brady
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · 2026-11
W · Dec · R5
Belal Muhammad
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Randy Brown
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Stephen Thompson
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Khaos Williams
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02

Brady · Last 5

Upcoming
Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · 2026-11
W · Dec · R3
Joaquin Buckley
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Michael Morales
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R4
Leon Edwards
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert Burns
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09

News & Media

Gabriel Bonfim · Sean Brady
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