Bryce Mitchell vs Victor Henry — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Las Vegas, USA

6 Jun 2026

Catchweight

51%

Mitchell

49%

Henry

Win Probability

Bryce Mitchell

"Thug Nasty"

18 – 4

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw31 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 56

Victor Henry

"La Mangosta"

25 – 7

Well-Rounded39 yrsSwitch68" reach5'7"

CFR 53

Bryce

Mitchell

2 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Mitchell

Victor Henry withdrew and sent in an undefeated 21-year-old Mexican wrestling champion instead — this might be worse news for Mitchell.

Bryce Mitchell was supposed to face Victor Henry in a relatively comfortable bantamweight booking. Henry is 25-7 and returning from a year-long layoff — manageable opposition for a man trying to rebuild his UFC standing after getting knocked out by Jean Silva. Then Henry withdrew, and in stepped Santiago Luna on nine days' notice. Luna is 8-0, 21 years old, has seven finishes, and is a three-time…

Mitchell intel

Mitchell prepared for Victor Henry and now receives a completely different challenge in an undefeated wrestler on short notice. His bantamweight transition has been smooth and his conditioning at 135 looks better than his featherweight days. No injury news.

Henry intel

Luna stepped in on nine days' notice and has publicly declared he is not impressed by Mitchell. The 21-year-old brings elite Greco-Roman credentials and a 7-finish record but has not faced anyone approaching Mitchell's experience level. His camp preparation will inevitably be incomplete.

Key angles

The Greco-Roman wrestling of Luna versus Mitchell's submission hunting creates a high-stakes grappling match

Short notice disadvantage — Luna's preparation for Mitchell's specific tendencies will be incomplete

Mitchell's experience at this level of competition against a prospect who has never faced it

Which fighter's grappling game establishes position first will likely determine the outcome

Luna's attitude heading in suggests he will engage rather than survive — making a boring decision unlikely

Risk flags

Luna's Greco-Roman pedigree may neutralise Mitchell's submission game entirely, taking away his biggest advantage

Short-notice opponents with nothing to lose historically fight loosely and dangerously — Luna's youth adds to the unpredictability

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Mitchell

Henry

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'7"

70"+

Reach

68"

31+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

Mitchell

Henry

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

55.7

52.9

48.6

Performance Avg

45.4

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Mitchell

Henry

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

0.6

2.0

55%

Strike Accuracy

55%

2.6

Striking Style Score (/10)

3.8

1 KOs

KO Finishes

1 KOs

Mitchell

Henry

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

—

0.2

Sub Attempts / fight

0.3

2.8

Grappling Style Score (/10)

1.8

1.9

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

1.3

Mitchell

Henry

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

13/22 fights

Chin rating based on

8/32 fights

Mitchell

Henry

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

W · KO · R3

L · KO · R1

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R2

W · KO · R3

Upcoming

Mitchell

Henry

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

22%

25%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mitchell

Henry

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.8

2.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.8

1.9

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.3

1.1

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

3.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.8

7.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.3

Mitchell

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Henry

Mitchell

Attacking

94 landed

Absorbing

82 absorbed

Henry

Attacking

209 landed

Absorbing

145 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Mitchell targets the head (64% of attacks) — Henry absorbs 70% of strikes there

🎯Henry targets the head (68% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 76% of strikes there

Mitchell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8

WinLossTrend

Henry · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9

WinLossTrend

Mitchell · Last 5

Upcoming

Victor Henry

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

W · Dec · R3

Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07

L · Sub · R2

Jean SilvaRating 4.3

Submission

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

W · KO · R3

Kron GracieRating 6.3

KO/TKO

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12

L · KO · R1

Josh EmmettRating 1.6

KO/TKO

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Henry · Last 5

Upcoming

Bryce Mitchell

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06

W · Dec · R3

Pedro FalcaoRating 4.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04

L · Sub · R2

Charles JourdainRating 3.5

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11

W · KO · R3

Rani YahyaRating 5.9

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

Upcoming

Javid Basharat

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

News & Media

Bryce Mitchell · Victor Henry

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Victor

Henry

2 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG