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UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
45%
Muhammad
55%
Bonfim
Win Probability
Belal
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
24 – 5
5'11"72" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 57
Gabriel
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
19 – 1
Well-Rounded4-fight win streak28 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'1"
CFR 69
Muhammad
Belal
Muhammad
To Win
1.77
10/13
Best · BetOnline.ag
-11.5% EDGE
Bet at Dafabet →
4 books quoted
18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Bonfim

A former champion desperate to prove he belongs against the sport's hottest welterweight commodity — Muhammad's legacy is on the line.

Belal Muhammad was supposed to be the welterweight who never lost. The grinder. The pressure machine from Chicago who made every fight ugly, wore opponents down, and made the scorecards inevitable. That version of Belal won the belt and defended it once. Then Jack Della Maddalena arrived, and everything changed. Muhammad dropped the title to JDM at UFC 315 in Montreal, absorbed a showcase-level b…

Muhammad intel

Muhammad dropped the UFC welterweight title to Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315, then was badly outboxed by Ian Machado Garry in his immediate follow-up. He is on a two-fight losing streak for the first time in his career and training camp has been described as 'tinkering around the edges' rather than a fundamental rebuild. His foot injury that cost him UFC 310 appears fully healed.

Bonfim intel

Bonfim studied Garry's win over Muhammad extensively and has verbally signalled a game plan centred on movement, low kicks, and avoiding the clinch where Belal is most dangerous. His brother Ismael, preparing for his own welterweight debut, has been an intensive sparring partner throughout camp. He is undefeated since his only loss, having finished Randy Brown in November.

Key angles

Can Muhammad reset psychologically after two losses, or does doubt creep in when Bonfim lands early?

Bonfim's submission threat from scrambles makes taking him down a double-edged sword for Belal

Muhammad's volume-pressure style is exactly what Bonfim studied and mapped a blueprint against

Five rounds could benefit Muhammad's conditioning, but Bonfim has already demonstrated five-round readiness

A Bonfim win puts him immediately into title picture; a Muhammad win is the minimum expectation

Risk flags

Muhammad's elite wrestling and top control could smother Bonfim if the Brazilian fails to defend takedowns early

Five rounds of pressure-grinding may simply exhaust Bonfim's energy expenditure on submission attempts

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Muhammad
Bonfim
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
72"
38
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Muhammad
Bonfim
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
69.3
48.5
Performance Avg
61.5
31
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
100
Muhammad
Bonfim
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Muhammad
Bonfim
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
4.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.4
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Muhammad
Bonfim
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
19 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/29 fights
Chin rating based on
8/20 fights
Muhammad
Bonfim
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Muhammad
Bonfim
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
3
12
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Muhammad
Bonfim
Striking2.8 / 3.4Volume7.9 / 4.4Grappling2.5 / 4.8Wrestling1.7 / 3.4Submission0.7 / 5.0Pressure3.6 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Muhammad
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Bonfim
Muhammad
Attacking
418HEAD50BODY13LEGS481 landed
Absorbing
247HEAD85BODY67LEGS399 absorbed
Bonfim
Attacking
75HEAD17BODY21LEGS113 landed
Absorbing
51HEAD25BODY21LEGS97 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Muhammad targets the head (87% of attacks) — Bonfim absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Bonfim targets the head (66% of attacks) — Muhammad absorbs 62% of strikes there

Muhammad · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.5L5.5W3.0L5.4W4.5W4.6W4.5W6.5L4.5W5.7W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.1W6.0W6.4W4.7W5.6W7.0L7.0L2016-072017-112020-062022-102025-11
WinLossTrend

Bonfim · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W5.2W3.1L4.5W6.7W5.1W6.0W2023-012023-112025-022025-11
WinLossTrend

Muhammad · Last 5

Upcoming
Gabriel Bonfim
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Ian Machado GarryRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05

Bonfim · Last 5

Upcoming
Belal Muhammad
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Randy BrownRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Khaos WilliamsRating 6.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ange LoosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07

News & Media

Belal Muhammad · Gabriel Bonfim
← Back to fights
Bonfim
Gabriel
Bonfim
To Win
2.40
7/5
Best · Betclic (FR)
+13.3% EDGE
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4 books quoted
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