Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Las Vegas, USA

11 Jul 2026

Catchweight

51%

Denis

49%

Pimblett

Win Probability

Benoit Saint Denis

"God of War"

17 – 3

5'11"73" reachSouthpaw30 yrs4-fight win streakKnockout Artist

CFR 71

Paddy Pimblett

"The Baddy"

23 – 4

Pressure Fighter31 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"

CFR 69

Benoit

Saint Denis

12 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Denis

Two lightweights on the cusp of title contention, one fight for everything — Saint Denis's relentless pressure meets Pimblett's granite chin.

This co-main event is arguably the most consequential fight on the card. The winner positions themselves for a lightweight title shot in 2027, and both men know it. Benoit Saint Denis, the 'God of War,' fights exactly like his nickname suggests. His 100% finish rate across 17 professional wins is staggering — he has never seen the judges' scorecards in a victory. His pressure style (9.25 rating) …

Denis intel

Saint Denis is 17-3 with a 100% finish rate in victories. Coming off strong form and positioned as a top lightweight contender. His pressure-first style has proven effective against everyone except elite wrestlers. Training camp reports suggest he's been sharpening his wrestling specifically for Pimblett's scrambling.

Pimblett intel

Pimblett is 23-4, with his unbeaten UFC run ended by Gaethje in the interim title fight. At 31, he's in peak form. His chin is virtually untested in the UFC — he's absorbed significant damage and never been wobbled. Kept the press conference civil, unusual for Paddy, suggesting serious focus.

Key angles

Winner likely gets a lightweight title shot in 2027

Saint Denis's 100% finish rate vs Pimblett's near-indestructible chin is the central tension

Pimblett's 44% takedown defense is a vulnerability BSD will target relentlessly

Both fighters have genuine submission threats — the grappling exchanges could be decisive

Saint Denis's pressure style (9.25) is designed to break opponents, but Pimblett doesn't break

Risk flags

BSD's model edge is razor-thin (51%) — Pimblett's chin and scrambling could easily swing this

If Pimblett can stuff the takedowns and keep this standing at range, his volume and durability favour a decision

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Denis

Pimblett

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'10"

73"

Reach

73"

30+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

Denis

Pimblett

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

70.9

69.2

62.5

Performance Avg

63.1

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Denis

Pimblett

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

2.7

1.4

60%

Strike Accuracy

52%

7.1

Striking Style Score (/10)

4.6

5 KOs

KO Finishes

2 KOs

Denis

Pimblett

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

—

0.1

Sub Attempts / fight

—

3.6

Grappling Style Score (/10)

4.1

2.5

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

2.9

Denis

Pimblett

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

6 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

13/20 fights

Chin rating based on

9/27 fights

Denis

Pimblett

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

4-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

Upcoming

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

W · Sub · R2

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R5

W · KO · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

Denis

Pimblett

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

100%

71%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Denis

Pimblett

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

7.1

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

4.6

3.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.1

2.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.9

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.3

9.3

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.6

1.5

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.0

Denis

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Pimblett

Denis

Attacking

262 landed

Absorbing

111 absorbed

Pimblett

Attacking

139 landed

Absorbing

112 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Denis targets the head (65% of attacks) — Pimblett absorbs 54% of strikes there

🎯Pimblett targets the head (72% of attacks) — Denis absorbs 62% of strikes there

Denis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5

WinLossTrend

Pimblett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7

WinLossTrend

Denis · Last 5

Upcoming

Paddy Pimblett

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

W · KO · R2

Dan HookerRating 6.1

KO/TKO

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01

W · KO · R1

Beneil DariushRating 6

KO/TKO

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R2

Mauricio RuffyRating 6.9

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09

W · Sub · R2

Kyle PrepolecRating 5.2

Submission

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05

Pimblett · Last 5

Upcoming

Benoit Saint Denis

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

L · Dec · R5

Justin GaethjeRating 7.1

Decision

UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01

W · KO · R3

Michael ChandlerRating 6

KO/TKO

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04

W · Sub · R1

King GreenRating 5.7

Submission

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

W · Dec · R3

Tony FergusonRating 5

Decision

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Benoit Saint Denis · Paddy Pimblett

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Paddy

Pimblett

12 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG