Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Glendale, USA

12 Sept 2026

Flyweight

41%

Moreno

59%

Morales

Win Probability

Brandon Moreno

"The Assassin Baby"

23 – 10

5'7"70" reachOrthodox32 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 53

Joseph Morales

"Bopo"

15 – 2

Submission Hunter2-fight win streak32 yrsSwitch69" reach5'6"

CFR 76

Brandon

Moreno

9 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Morales

A former champion on a two-fight losing run meets a submission specialist rated a perfect 10.0 who has finished everyone he has beaten.

Brandon Moreno is the most accomplished fighter on this card and the model does not care. His composite reads 52.8, his momentum has fallen to 54.0, and the reason is on the record: a second-round knockout defeat to Tatsuro Taira in December 2025 and a five-round decision loss to Lone'er Kavanagh in February. Two defeats in a row, and the first of them the sort that leaves a mark on a 32-year-old …

Moreno intel

Moreno (23-10-2) has lost two in a row — knocked out by Tatsuro Taira in the second round in December 2025 and outpointed by Lone'er Kavanagh over five in February. Before that he beat Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi on the cards. At 32 his 46.8 quality-of-victory reflects a decade against the division's best, but his 66.0 chin rating is now the softest part of him.

Morales intel

Morales (15-2) has submitted both opponents since returning to the promotion — Matt Schnell inside three minutes in November 2025 and Alibi Idiris in the second round in August 2025. Every win in the recorded sample has come inside the distance, giving him a finish rate of 1.00. His two defeats both date from 2018; the recorded sample is five fights across eight years, so the 75.6 composite is built on limited evidence.

Key angles

A 10.0 submission score against a former champion who has never been submitted in his last five

Morales' 1.20 striking and 1.20 volume — if the takedowns fail there is nothing else

Moreno has fought five rounds four times in his last five; the mileage is real at 32

Morales' 69.3 quality-of-victory is the highest number in the pack despite only five recorded fights

Moreno's 66.0 chin rating after the Taira knockout in December 2025

Risk flags

Morales' rating rests on five recorded fights spanning eight years — the 75.6 composite could be badly overstated

Moreno's takedown defence and scrambling are the exact skills the pack cannot measure well, and they have carried him through worse matchups than this

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Moreno

Morales

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'7"+

Height

5'6"

70"+

Reach

69"

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

Moreno

Morales

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

52.8

75.6

52.5

Performance Avg

65.6

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Moreno

Morales

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

3.0

/ 10

1.2

/ 10

5.0

Style: Pressure

8.8

4.9

Style: Volume

1.2

2 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Moreno

Morales

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

3.3

/ 10

8.0

/ 10

2.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

5.6

2.7

Submission Style (/10)

10.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Moreno

Morales

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

2 fights ago

Last KO loss

4 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

21/33 fights

Chin rating based on

6/17 fights

Moreno

Morales

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Upcoming

L · Dec · R5

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R5

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R2

Moreno

Morales

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

46%

100%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Moreno

Morales

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.2

3.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

8.0

2.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

5.6

2.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

10.0

5.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

8.8

4.9

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

1.2

Moreno

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Morales

Moreno

Attacking

349 landed

Absorbing

320 absorbed

Morales

Attacking

48 landed

Absorbing

37 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Moreno targets the head (77% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 65% of strikes there

🎯Morales targets the head (63% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 73% of strikes there

Moreno · Last 5

Upcoming

Joseph Morales

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09

L · Dec · R5

Lone'er Kavanagh

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02

L · KO · R2

Tatsuro Taira

KO/TKO

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Dec · R5

Steve Erceg

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

W · Dec · R5

Amir Albazi

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11

Morales · Last 5

Upcoming

Brandon Moreno

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado · 2026-09

W · Sub · R1

Matt Schnell

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11

W · Sub · R2

Alibi Idiris

Submission

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

L · Dec · R3

Eric Shelton

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez · 2018-11

L · KO · R2

Deiveson Figueiredo

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

News & Media

Brandon Moreno · Joseph Morales

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Joseph

Morales

9 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG