Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Las Vegas, USA

11 Jul 2026

Catchweight

53%

Sandhagen

47%

Bautista

Win Probability

Cory Sandhagen

18 – 6

5'11"70" reachSwitch34 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 64

Mario Bautista

17 – 3

Well-Rounded33 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"

CFR 57

Cory

Sandhagen

13 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Sandhagen

Seven years after Sandhagen armbarred Bautista in Brooklyn, the rematch asks whether the grappler has closed the gap on one of bantamweight's best strikers.

In January 2019, a relatively unknown Cory Sandhagen submitted Mario Bautista with a first-round armbar at UFC Brooklyn. Seven years later, both men have evolved into legitimate top-10 bantamweights, and Bautista wants revenge. Sandhagen's path since that first meeting has been extraordinary — title fights, knockout-of-the-year contenders, and establishment as one of the most creative strikers in…

Sandhagen intel

Sandhagen enters at 18-6, ranked among the bantamweight elite. His switch-stance striking creates unique angles and he's comfortable everywhere. Says this fight 'doesn't feel like a rematch' because both fighters have changed so dramatically. First three-round fight in over five years — an adjustment he'll need to manage.

Bautista intel

Bautista at 17-3 has been climbing steadily, with an 11-3 UFC record. Plans to wrestle aggressively, viewing the grappling matchup as his clearest path to victory. Hunting a finish rather than a decision — wants to prove the first fight was an anomaly of timing, not talent.

Key angles

Rematch from January 2019 — Sandhagen won by first-round armbar

Bautista's wrestling vs Sandhagen's striking is the defining dynamic

Sandhagen's first three-round fight since 2021 — cardio management in a shorter fight

Bautista's grappling has improved dramatically since the first meeting

Sandhagen's chin (80.0) vs Bautista's (64.0) could matter in a grinding fight

Risk flags

If Bautista can chain takedowns and maintain top control, his improved wrestling could neutralise Sandhagen's striking entirely

Sandhagen has been fighting five-rounders for years — adjusting to three-round urgency could disrupt his usually patient gameplan

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Sandhagen

Bautista

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'11"+

Height

5'9"

70"+

Reach

69"

Age

+33

Switch

Stance

Switch

Sandhagen

Bautista

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

64.2

56.7

53.8

Performance Avg

54.6

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Sandhagen

Bautista

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

1.3

2.3

44%

Strike Accuracy

52%

5.9

Striking Style Score (/10)

2.5

5 KOs

KO Finishes

1 KOs

Sandhagen

Bautista

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

—

0.1

Sub Attempts / fight

—

1.6

Grappling Style Score (/10)

4.2

1.1

Wrestling Style Score (/10)

3.0

Sandhagen

Bautista

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

11 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

17/24 fights

Chin rating based on

15/20 fights

Sandhagen

Bautista

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

Upcoming

L · Dec · R5

W · KO · R2

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

Last 5

Upcoming

W · Sub · R2

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Sandhagen

Bautista

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

55%

46%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sandhagen

Bautista

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

2.5

1.6

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.2

1.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.0

0.9

Submission

Submission attack frequency

3.6

5.9

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.5

4.3

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.9

Sandhagen

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Bautista

Sandhagen

Attacking

313 landed

Absorbing

225 absorbed

Bautista

Attacking

346 landed

Absorbing

198 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Sandhagen targets the head (69% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 66% of strikes there

🎯Bautista targets the head (62% of attacks) — Sandhagen absorbs 61% of strikes there

Sandhagen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5

WinLossTrend

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9

WinLossTrend

Sandhagen · Last 5

Upcoming

Mario Bautista

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

L · Dec · R5

Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8

Decision

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10

W · KO · R2

Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.2

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05

L · Dec · R5

Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08

W · Dec · R5

Rob FontRating 5.7

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming

Cory Sandhagen

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07

W · Sub · R2

Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8

Decision

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10

W · Dec · R3

Patchy MixRating 4.5

Decision

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

W · Dec · R3

Jose AldoRating 5

Decision

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Cory Sandhagen · Mario Bautista

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Mario

Bautista

13 books quoted

18+ · BEGAMBLEAWARE.ORG