UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2026
Catchweight
VS
53%
Sandhagen
47%
Bautista
Win Probability
Cory
Cory Sandhagen
186
5'11"70" reachSwitch34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 64
Mario
Mario Bautista
173
Well-Rounded32 yrsSwitch69" reach5'9"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Sandhagen

Two technical bantamweight strikers meet in a rematch that could define the next title challenger

Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista meet again at UFC 329, this time on the biggest stage either has competed on. Their first fight was competitive, and this rematch promises to be equally close. Sandhagen's striking creativity — spinning attacks, level changes in his combinations, and elite timing — makes him must-watch television. His CFR of 64.2 edges Bautista's 56.7, reflecting his superior ove…

Sandhagen intel

Cory Sandhagen (18-6) carries a momentum score of 100, reflecting a strong recent run. His creative striking and varied attack make him one of the most technically gifted bantamweights. His chin rating of 80 is solid.

Bautista intel

Mario Bautista (17-3) has a 4.22 grappling score and 3.64 submission score that give him clear advantages on the mat. The model gives him a 56.7% edge in this rematch.

Key angles

Sandhagen's striking creativity vs Bautista's wrestling control

Bautista's grappling advantage is his clearest path to victory

This is a rematch — both fighters have tactical intelligence from the first fight

Sandhagen's momentum of 100 suggests he's peaking

Risk flags

Bautista's wrestling could neutralise Sandhagen's striking entirely

If Sandhagen can stuff takedowns, his striking advantage becomes overwhelming

Sandhagen
Bautista
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
34
Age
+32
Switch
Stance
Switch
Sandhagen
Bautista
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.2
56.7
53.8
Performance Avg
54.6
44
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
73
Sandhagen
Bautista
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
2.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Sandhagen
Bautista
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.0
Sandhagen
Bautista
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
17/24 fights
Chin rating based on
15/20 fights
Sandhagen
Bautista
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
73
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Sandhagen
Bautista
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
46%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
4
5
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sandhagen
Bautista
Striking5.9 / 2.5Volume4.3 / 5.9Grappling1.6 / 4.2Wrestling1.1 / 3.0Submission0.9 / 3.6Pressure5.9 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
4.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Sandhagen
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Bautista
Sandhagen
Attacking
217HEAD44BODY52LEGS313 landed
Absorbing
137HEAD52BODY36LEGS225 absorbed
Bautista
Attacking
214HEAD93BODY39LEGS346 landed
Absorbing
131HEAD32BODY35LEGS198 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sandhagen targets the head (69% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Bautista targets the head (62% of attacks) — Sandhagen absorbs 61% of strikes there

Sandhagen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.2W5.2W6.1W4.5W4.5W2.5L5.1W5.0W5.6L7.0L5.7W5.3W5.7W6.8L6.2W6.8L2018-012019-082021-072023-082025-10
WinLossTrend

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.0L4.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W5.3W5.0W5.0W5.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W6.8L6.1W2019-012022-022023-082025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Sandhagen · Last 5

Upcoming
Mario Bautista
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Dec · R5
Rob FontRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font · 2023-08

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

News & Media

Cory Sandhagen · Mario Bautista
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