UFC Freedom 250
Washington, USA
14 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
58%
Ruffy
42%
Chandler
Win Probability
Mauricio
Mauricio Ruffy
132
5'11"75" reachOrthodox29 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 69
Michael
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
2310
Knockout Artist3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'8"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Ruffy

Rising lightweight star Mauricio Ruffy targets another spectacular finish against fading veteran Michael Chandler on the White House lawn

There's a bittersweet quality to watching Michael Chandler at this stage of his career. The former Bellator champion has provided some of the most thrilling moments in UFC history — his wars with Gaethje and Poirier are all-time classics — but his 2-5 UFC record tells the story of a fighter who has consistently been a tier below the division's best. Mauricio Ruffy represents the new generation, a…

Ruffy intel

Mauricio Ruffy (13-2) rebounded from his first UFC loss with a second-round KO of Rafael Fiziev. The 29-year-old is a -298 favourite and says he has 'something special planned' for the White House stage.

Chandler intel

Michael Chandler (23-10) has lost three straight fights including a KO loss to Paddy Pimblett. His UFC record stands at 2-5, and at 40, the former Bellator champion's best days are clearly behind him. His chin rating of 40 and momentum of 45.5 reflect a fighter in decline.

Key angles

Ruffy's chin advantage (88 vs 40) means he can weather Chandler's early storm

Chandler's three-fight losing streak at 40 suggests significant decline

Ruffy's knockout of Fiziev proved his power at the highest level

Chandler's only path is an early knockout before his cardio fades

Risk flags

Chandler's one-punch power means he's never truly out of a fight

If Chandler clips Ruffy early, the fight could end before the favourite establishes rhythm

Ruffy
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
75"+
Reach
71"
29+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ruffy
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.7
50.3
62.0
Performance Avg
45.9
50
Quality of Victory
58
87
Momentum Score
46
Ruffy
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
57%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Ruffy
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ruffy
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
40
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
Strikes absorbed / min
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Ruffy
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
46
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Ruffy
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ruffy
Chandler
Striking9.1 / 10.0Volume3.6 / 0.6Grappling0.6 / 0.0Wrestling0.4 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.7 / 7.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
Ruffy
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Chandler
Ruffy
Attacking
80HEAD5BODY7LEGS92 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD39BODY18LEGS94 absorbed
Chandler
Attacking
63HEAD27BODY3LEGS93 landed
Absorbing
81HEAD6BODY23LEGS110 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ruffy targets the head (87% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (68% of attacks) — Ruffy absorbs 39% of strikes there

Ruffy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.2W4.5W5.7W4.5L6.2W2024-052024-112025-032025-092026-01
WinLossTrend

Chandler · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.9W3.5L7.1L5.8W5.3L6.9L4.5L2021-012021-112022-112025-04
WinLossTrend

Ruffy · Last 5

Upcoming
Michael Chandler
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Rafael FizievRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
James LlontopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11

Chandler · Last 5

Upcoming
Mauricio Ruffy
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Mauricio Ruffy · Michael Chandler
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