METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Freedom 250
Washington, USA
14 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
58%
Ruffy
42%
Chandler
Win Probability
Mauricio
Mauricio Ruffy
132
5'11"75" reachOrthodox30 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 69
Michael
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
2310
Knockout Artist3-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'8"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Ruffy

Ruffy's momentum versus Chandler's last stand — the Brazilian rising star against one of the sport's most explosive veterans

Mauricio Ruffy (13-2) is one of the more exciting lightweight prospects in the UFC. Michael Chandler (23-10) was once the most explosive lightweight in the world, but at 37 and with a CFR of 50.3, the question is whether his heart can make up for what the metrics say about his current level. Chandler will throw everything at Ruffy in round one — that is not strategic observation, it is his career-…

Ruffy intel

Ruffy (13-2, CFR 68.7) has sharp striking and high-level wrestling entries. He is 5-0 in his last five and on the ascent.

Chandler intel

Chandler (23-10, CFR 50.3) is fighting on heart and experience. His explosive early-round offence remains dangerous but his gas tank and durability have both diminished.

Key angles

Ruffy's movement to survive Chandler's explosive round 1

Whether Chandler can maintain output past two rounds

Ruffy's takedown game as a control mechanism in later rounds

Risk flags

Chandler's first-round KO power is still very real

The White House occasion could amplify Chandler's emotional output

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Ruffy
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'8"
75"+
Reach
71"
30+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ruffy
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.7
50.3
62.0
Performance Avg
45.9
50
Quality of Victory
58
87
Momentum Score
46
Ruffy
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.9
57%
Strike Accuracy
57%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Ruffy
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ruffy
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
40
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
Strikes absorbed / min
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
8/33 fights
Ruffy
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
46
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
Ruffy
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ruffy
Chandler
Striking9.1 / 10.0Volume3.6 / 0.6Grappling0.6 / 0.0Wrestling0.4 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.7 / 7.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.6
Ruffy
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Chandler
Ruffy
Attacking
80HEAD5BODY7LEGS92 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD39BODY18LEGS94 absorbed
Chandler
Attacking
63HEAD27BODY3LEGS93 landed
Absorbing
81HEAD6BODY23LEGS110 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ruffy targets the head (87% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (68% of attacks) — Ruffy absorbs 39% of strikes there

Ruffy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.2W4.5W5.7W4.5L6.2W2024-052024-112025-032025-092026-01
WinLossTrend

Chandler · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.9W3.5L7.1L5.8W5.3L6.9L4.5L2021-012021-112022-112025-04
WinLossTrend

Ruffy · Last 5

Upcoming
Michael Chandler
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R2
Rafael FizievRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Sub · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
King GreenRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
James LlontopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11

Chandler · Last 5

Upcoming
Mauricio Ruffy
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R3
Paddy PimblettRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · KO · R2
Tony FergusonRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05

News & Media

Mauricio Ruffy · Michael Chandler
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