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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Edmonton, Canada
17 Oct 2026
Women's Bantamweight
VS
52%
Croden
48%
Chandler
Win Probability
Melissa
Melissa Croden
"Scare"
83
5'9"68" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Chelsea
Chelsea Chandler
64
Well-Rounded35 yrsSouthpaw68" reach5'8"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Croden

A Canadian with a 98 chin rating and three UFC fights meets a submission threat who has been stopped once and carries a 0.67 finish rate.

Melissa Croden has three recorded UFC fights and the model likes all of them. Her 57.9 composite is the higher figure here, her chin rating is 98.0, her momentum reads 78.7, and her 6.33 striking score is comfortably the best in this pairing. The caveat has to be said plainly: three fights is a small base, and ratings built on it move a long way with one bad night. What those three fights contain…

Croden intel

Croden (8-3) has three recorded UFC fights: a decision win over Daria Zhelezniakova in April, a decision loss to Luana Santos in December 2025, and a third-round stoppage of Tainara Lisboa in October 2025. At 35, with a 98.0 chin rating and a 57.9 composite, she is the better-rated fighter here on a deliberately small sample.

Chandler intel

Chandler (6-4) submitted Priscila Cachoeira in the first round in June, her first win since a decision over Josiane Nunes in March 2024. She was knocked out by Joselyne Edwards in the first round in April 2025 and has decision losses to Yana Santos and Norma Dumont. Her 46.3 quality-of-victory is the higher of the two.

Key angles

Croden's ratings rest on three recorded UFC fights — the 57.9 composite is not yet load-bearing

A 0.0 submission score for Croden against Chandler's 3.33 and a first-round finish in June

Croden's 6.33 striking against 4.33 in a fight that starts standing

Chandler's 74.0 chin and the Joselyne Edwards knockout as the fastest route against her

Chandler's 46.3 quality-of-victory against Croden's 37.5 — she has faced the harder schedule

Risk flags

One takedown changes the fight entirely given Croden's 0.84 wrestling and 0.0 submission scores

Three recorded fights is not enough to trust a 98.0 chin rating against a fighter with a 0.67 finish rate

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Croden
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'8"
68"
Reach
68"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Croden
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.9
53.2
49.2
Performance Avg
47.8
38
Quality of Victory
46
79
Momentum Score
59
Croden
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
6.3
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
5.5
Style: Pressure
6.2
5.3
Style: Volume
3.7
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Croden
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Croden
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
7/10 fights
Croden
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
59
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Croden
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Croden
Chandler
Striking6.3 / 4.3Volume5.3 / 3.7Grappling1.2 / 3.5Wrestling0.8 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure5.5 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Croden
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Chandler
Croden
Attacking
58HEAD8BODY5LEGS71 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD2BODY0LEGS17 absorbed
Chandler
Attacking
80HEAD29BODY3LEGS112 landed
Absorbing
60HEAD26BODY23LEGS109 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Croden targets the head (82% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the head (71% of attacks) — Croden absorbs 88% of strikes there

Croden · Last 4

Upcoming
Chelsea Chandler
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10
W · Dec · R3
Daria Zhelezniakova
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Luana Santos
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Tainara Lisboa
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

Chandler · Last 5

Upcoming
Melissa Croden
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10
W · Sub · R1
Priscila Cachoeira
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Joselyne Edwards
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Yana Santos
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Josiane Nunes
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03

News & Media

Melissa Croden · Chelsea Chandler
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