Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

Joshua Van needed twenty-six seconds to take the flyweight division from Alexandre Pantoja, and the rematch asks whether that was a fluke or a verdict.

Twenty-six seconds. That is how long the first fight lasted, and it is the number every other number in this preview has to be read against. Alexandre Pantoja had defended the flyweight title repeatedly and beaten Kai Kara-France, Kai Asakura, Steve Erceg and Brandon Royval in a row before December 2025. Then Joshua Van hit him and the reign was over before the crowd had settled. The ratings have…

Van intel

Van (17-2) is unbeaten across his last five, with knockouts of Pantoja in December and Tatsuro Taira in the fifth round in May, plus decisions over Brandon Royval and Rei Tsuruya. At 24 he is twelve years the younger man. His momentum score of 100.0 and 67.8 composite are both the higher figures here.

Pantoja intel

Pantoja (30-6) had won four straight before Van stopped him, submitting Kai Kara-France in the third in June 2025 and Kai Asakura in the second in December 2024. His 48.5 quality-of-victory leads Van's 43.8, and a 0.57 finish rate reflects a career of ending fights on the mat rather than the feet.

Key angles

Whether Pantoja's 4.46 grappling can ever be applied — the first fight lasted twenty-six seconds

Pantoja's five-centimetre reach edge at identical height, and whether he uses it to enter safely

Van's 0.0 submission score against a man with two recent first- and second-round submissions

A twelve-year age gap, 24 against 36, in a division built on pace

Van's 100.0 momentum against a 48.5 quality-of-victory that still belongs to Pantoja

Risk flags

The head-to-head sample is twenty-six seconds long; it tells us almost nothing about rounds two and three

Van has never had to defend the chain wrestling and submission game that beat Kara-France and Asakura

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Van

Pantoja

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'5"

Height

5'5"

65"

Reach

+67"

24+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Van

Pantoja

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

68.6

60.7

63.7

Performance Avg

60.2

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Van

Pantoja

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

5.8

/ 10

3.0

/ 10

5.5

Style: Pressure

6.3

6.6

Style: Volume

5.0

4 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Van

Pantoja

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

1.4

/ 10

4.5

/ 10

1.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.1

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

4.3

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Van

Pantoja

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R3.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

8 fights ago

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

12/19 fights

Chin rating based on

19/36 fights

Van

Pantoja

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

7-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

Upcoming

W · KO · R5

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R3

W · Sub · R2

W · Dec · R5

Van

Pantoja

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

40%

57%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Van

Pantoja

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.8

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.0

1.4

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.5

1.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.1

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

4.3

5.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.3

6.6

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.0

Van

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Pantoja

Van

Attacking

436 landed

Absorbing

279 absorbed

Pantoja

Attacking

276 landed

Absorbing

264 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Van targets the head (74% of attacks) — Pantoja absorbs 87% of strikes there

🎯Pantoja targets the head (78% of attacks) — Van absorbs 74% of strikes there

Van · Last 5

Upcoming

Alexandre Pantoja

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

W · KO · R5

Tatsuro Taira

KO/TKO

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05

W · KO · R1

Alexandre Pantoja

KO/TKO

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Dec · R3

Brandon Royval

Decision

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

W · KO · R3

Bruno Silva

KO/TKO

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

Pantoja · Last 5

Upcoming

Joshua Van

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09

L · KO · R1

Joshua Van

KO/TKO

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12

W · Sub · R3

Kai Kara-France

Submission

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

W · Sub · R2

Kai Asakura

Submission

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12

W · Dec · R5

Steve Erceg

Decision

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

Joshua Van · Alexandre Pantoja

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Alexandre

Pantoja

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