Rei Tsuruya vs Jesus Aguilar — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

Macau, China

30 May 2026

Catchweight

43%

Tsuruya

57%

Aguilar

Win Probability

SUB · Rear Naked Choke

Round 1 · 3:19

Rei Tsuruya

10 – 1

5'6"68" reachOrthodox24 yrsWell-Rounded

CFR 39

Jesus Aguilar

12 – 4

Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'4"

CFR 52

★ Official Result

Rei TsuruyawinsSUBR1 · 3:19

def. Jesus Aguilar · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Aguilar

Jesus Aguilar wins via decision in a competitive fight that could go either way.

→

Actual result

Tsuruya wins

SUB · R1

Pre-fight analysis

Rei Tsuruya and Jesus Aguilar collide in a matchup that could reshape division trajectories

When Rei Tsuruya (10-1) and Jesus Aguilar (12-4) step into the octagon at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, it will be a clash that tests where both fighters truly stand in the division pecking order. Both fighters bring overlapping skill sets to the cage, which means the margins will be razor-thin. Preparation, game-planning, and mid-fight adjustments will prove decisive. The numbers tell a…

Tsuruya intel

Rei Tsuruya (10-1) carries a CFR of 38.7 with a 0% finish rate, chin rating of 98, and momentum score of 45.5.

Aguilar intel

Jesus Aguilar (12-4) carries a CFR of 52.3 with a 50% finish rate, chin rating of 84, and momentum score of 59.5.

Key angles

Jesus Aguilar's striking volume advantage could be decisive if this stays standing

The fighter who controls distance and pace will have a significant advantage

Cardio and conditioning could prove decisive in the later rounds

Risk flags

Rei Tsuruya could spring an upset with superior game-planning or an early power shot

Tsuruya

Aguilar

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'6"+

Height

5'4"

68"+

Reach

62"

24+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Tsuruya

Aguilar

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

38.7

52.3

35.0

Performance Avg

47.5

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Tsuruya

Aguilar

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.4

1.0

43%

Strike Accuracy

35%

1.0

Striking Style Score (/10)

3.6

0 KOs

KO Finishes

1 KOs

Tsuruya

Aguilar

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.4

/ 10

3.2

/ 10

1.7

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.2

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

2.5

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Tsuruya

Aguilar

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

3/11 fights

Chin rating based on

8/16 fights

Tsuruya

Aguilar

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

Tsuruya

Aguilar

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tsuruya

Aguilar

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

1.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.6

2.4

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.2

1.7

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.2

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

2.5

1.5

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.2

9.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.1

Tsuruya

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Aguilar

Tsuruya

Attacking

17 landed

Absorbing

30 absorbed

Aguilar

Attacking

83 landed

Absorbing

85 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Tsuruya targets the head (88% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 78% of strikes there

🎯Aguilar targets the head (60% of attacks) — Tsuruya absorbs 60% of strikes there

Tsuruya · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8

WinLossTrend

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9

WinLossTrend

Tsuruya · Last 3

Upcoming

Jesus Aguilar

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

L · Dec · R3

Joshua VanRating 7.1

Decision

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Carlos HernandezRating 4.5

Decision

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

Aguilar · Last 5

Upcoming

Rei Tsuruya

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05

L · Dec · R3

SumudaerjiRating 6.1

Decision

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Luis GuruleRating 4.5

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09

L · Dec · R3

Rafael EstevamRating 6.1

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02

W · Sub · R1

Stewart NicollRating 5

Submission

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Rei Tsuruya · Jesus Aguilar

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