UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Macau, China
30 May 2026
Catchweight
VS
43%
Tsuruya
57%
Aguilar
Win Probability
Rei
Rei Tsuruya
10 – 1
5'6"68" reachOrthodox23 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Jesus
Jesus Aguilar
12 – 4
Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'4"
CFR 52

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Aguilar

A battle of contrasting styles as Rei Tsuruya and Jesus Aguilar clash on the UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo card

Rei Tsuruya (10-1) meets Jesus Aguilar (12-4) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo card. The classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic defines this matchup, with Jesus Aguilar wanting to keep it standing and Rei Tsuruya looking to take it to the mat. This is a closely matched fight by the numbers, with both fighters carrying similar CFR ratings. The mo…

Tsuruya intel

Rei Tsuruya (10-1) carries a CFR of 38.7 with a chin rating of 98 and momentum score of 46. Has been struggling in recent outings.

Aguilar intel

Jesus Aguilar (12-4) carries a CFR of 52.3 with a chin rating of 84 and momentum score of 60. Recent results have been mixed.

Key angles

Jesus Aguilar's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

The low confidence rating suggests a close fight

The model gives Rei Tsuruya a 58.9% win probability

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Jesus Aguilar has a legitimate path to victory

Tsuruya
Aguilar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
68"+
Reach
62"
23+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tsuruya
Aguilar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.7
52.3
35.0
Performance Avg
47.5
25
Quality of Victory
41
46
Momentum Score
60
Tsuruya
Aguilar
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.4
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
35%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Tsuruya
Aguilar
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tsuruya
Aguilar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
8/16 fights
Tsuruya
Aguilar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
60
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Tsuruya
Aguilar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tsuruya
Aguilar
Striking1.0 / 3.6Volume9.0 / 5.1Grappling2.4 / 3.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure1.5 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Tsuruya
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Aguilar
Tsuruya
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD12BODY0LEGS30 absorbed
Aguilar
Attacking
50HEAD18BODY15LEGS83 landed
Absorbing
66HEAD14BODY5LEGS85 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tsuruya targets the head (88% of attacks) — Aguilar absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Aguilar targets the head (60% of attacks) — Tsuruya absorbs 60% of strikes there

Tsuruya · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0104.5W7.1L2024-062025-03
WinLossTrend

Aguilar · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.2L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1L4.5W6.1L2023-022024-022025-022026-03
WinLossTrend

Tsuruya · Last 3

Upcoming
Jesus Aguilar
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Joshua VanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Carlos HernandezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

Aguilar · Last 5

Upcoming
Rei Tsuruya
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Luis GuruleRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Rafael EstevamRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Stewart NicollRating 5
Submission
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08

News & Media

Rei Tsuruya · Jesus Aguilar
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