Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Edmonton, Canada

17 Oct 2026

Middleweight

44%

Barriault

56%

Daukaus

Win Probability

Marc-Andre Barriault

"Powerbar"

17 – 11

6'1"74" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 36

Kyle Daukaus

17 – 4

Well-Rounded33 yrsSouthpaw76" reach6'2"

CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Daukaus

Two middleweights with chin ratings of 10 and 30 meet in a fight that the numbers say will not reach the judges.

There is a category of middleweight fight where both men have been finished so often that the only real question is the order of events. This is one, and the ratings say so without much ambiguity: Marc-Andre Barriault's chin rating is 10.0 and Kyle Daukaus' is 30.0. Neither of those is a number you want next to your name. Barriault is the local fighter and the more damaged one. He is 17-11 at 36,…

Barriault intel

Barriault (17-11) has lost four of his last five, most recently a decision to Michal Oleksiejczuk in February, with first-round knockout defeats to Dustin Stoltzfus and Joe Pyfer in that run. His first-round knockout of Bruno Silva at UFC 315 in May 2025 is the exception. A 13.0 momentum score and a 10.0 chin rating are the two lowest figures he could carry into a fight at 36.

Daukaus intel

Daukaus (17-4) knocked out Michel Pereira in forty-three seconds in August 2025 and submitted Gerald Meerschaert in fifty seconds in November, before Bo Nickal stopped him in the first round in June. A 0.75 finish rate and a 48.2 quality-of-victory are the best numbers in this fight; a 30.0 chin rating is the caveat attached to them.

Key angles

Chin ratings of 10.0 and 30.0 — two of the four lowest on this card sharing a cage

Daukaus' 5.0 submission score against Barriault's 1.67 and the Meerschaert finish that proves it

Barriault's 5.75 striking against 3.39 — his only lane, and it requires him to be hit back

A 13.0 momentum score for Barriault, above only Mandel Nallo’s 0.0 in this pack

Five centimetres of reach and a southpaw stance for Daukaus

Risk flags

Daukaus has been stopped by strikes three times in his last five; Barriault's 0.67 finish rate makes that a live route

Barriault is fighting at home in Edmonton and has historically found a way to make fights ugly and close

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Barriault

Daukaus

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"

Height

+6'2"

74"

Reach

+76"

Age

+33

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

Barriault

Daukaus

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

35.6

44.7

41.9

Performance Avg

46.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Barriault

Daukaus

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

5.8

/ 10

3.4

/ 10

5.8

Style: Pressure

6.6

3.4

Style: Volume

2.9

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

1 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Barriault

Daukaus

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

2.1

/ 10

4.6

/ 10

1.5

Wrestling Style (/10)

3.2

1.7

Submission Style (/10)

5.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Barriault

Daukaus

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

2 consec. KOs

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.3 stoppage

4 fights ago

Last KO loss

1 fight ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

18/28 fights

Chin rating based on

11/21 fights

Barriault

Daukaus

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

L · KO · R1

Last 5

Upcoming

L · KO · R1

W · Sub · R1

W · KO · R1

L · KO · R2

Barriault

Daukaus

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

67%

75%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barriault

Daukaus

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.8

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

3.4

2.1

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

4.6

1.5

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

3.2

1.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

5.0

5.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.6

3.4

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.9

Barriault

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Daukaus

Barriault

Attacking

467 landed

Absorbing

385 absorbed

Daukaus

Attacking

83 landed

Absorbing

94 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Barriault targets the head (78% of attacks) — Daukaus absorbs 77% of strikes there

🎯Daukaus targets the head (77% of attacks) — Barriault absorbs 68% of strikes there

Barriault · Last 5

Upcoming

Kyle Daukaus

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10

L · Dec · R3

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02

L · Dec · R3

Shara Magomedov

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07

W · KO · R1

Bruno Silva

KO/TKO

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05

L · KO · R1

Dustin Stoltzfus

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11

Daukaus · Last 5

Upcoming

Marc-Andre Barriault

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10

L · KO · R1

Bo Nickal

KO/TKO

UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06

W · Sub · R1

Gerald Meerschaert

Submission

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · KO · R1

Michel Pereira

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08

L · KO · R2

Eryk Anders

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12

News & Media

Marc-Andre Barriault · Kyle Daukaus

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