UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
68%
Nascimento
32%
Raposo
Win Probability
Allan
Allan Nascimento
"Puro Osso"
22 – 6
5'8"69" reachOrthodox34 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 65
Mitch
Mitch Raposo
10 – 3
Well-Rounded27 yrsSwitch64" reach5'5"
CFR 31

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Nascimento

Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo clash on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card

Allan Nascimento (22-6) meets Mitch Raposo (10-3) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card. Both fighters bring well-rounded skillsets that should produce a technically interesting contest. The CFR gap tells a clear story — Allan Nascimento's rating significantly outpaces Mitch Raposo's, suggesting a meaningful talent disparity. The model gives t…

Nascimento intel

Allan Nascimento (22-6) carries a CFR of 65.4 with a chin rating of 98 and momentum score of 100. Currently on strong form.

Raposo intel

Mitch Raposo (10-3) carries a CFR of 31.1 with a chin rating of 96 and momentum score of 27. Has been struggling in recent outings.

Key angles

Allan Nascimento's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Allan Nascimento's momentum advantage reflects superior recent form

The low confidence rating suggests a close fight

The model gives Mitch Raposo a 54.7% win probability

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Allan Nascimento has a legitimate path to victory

Allan Nascimento's superior durability could prove decisive in a war of attrition

Nascimento
Raposo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'5"
69"+
Reach
64"
34
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Nascimento
Raposo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.4
31.1
55.0
Performance Avg
28.3
38
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
27
Nascimento
Raposo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Nascimento
Raposo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
Nascimento
Raposo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
96
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/28 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Nascimento
Raposo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
27
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Nascimento
Raposo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nascimento
Raposo
Striking1.6 / 0.7Volume5.6 / 8.7Grappling5.2 / 2.4Wrestling3.6 / 1.7Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure5.9 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Nascimento
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Raposo
Nascimento
Attacking
20HEAD9BODY14LEGS43 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD2BODY2LEGS38 absorbed
Raposo
Attacking
21HEAD7BODY0LEGS28 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD7BODY13LEGS44 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nascimento targets the head (47% of attacks) — Raposo absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Raposo targets the head (75% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 89% of strikes there

Nascimento · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0106.6L5.2W5.0W5.6W5.4W2021-102022-052023-012025-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Raposo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.9
0107.0L6.1L4.5W2024-062025-042025-10
WinLossTrend

Nascimento · Last 5

Upcoming
Mitch Raposo
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jafel FilhoRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Carlos HernandezRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Jake HadleyRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05

Raposo · Last 4

Upcoming
Allan Nascimento
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Azat MaksumRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
SumudaerjiRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Andre LimaRating 7
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Allan Nascimento · Mitch Raposo
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