UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
44%
Diniz
56%
Montanha
Win Probability
Jhonata
Jhonata Diniz
92
6'4"79" reachOrthodox34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 52
JM
Jose Montanha
61
29 yrs
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Montanha

Jhonata Diniz and Jose Montanha clash on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card

Jhonata Diniz (9-2) meets Jose Montanha (6-1) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card. Both fighters bring well-rounded skillsets that should produce a technically interesting contest. This is a closely matched fight by the numbers, with both fighters carrying similar CFR ratings. The model gives Jose Montanha a 63.6% edge, but the low-confidenc…

Diniz intel

Jhonata Diniz (9-2) carries a CFR of 51.5 with a chin rating of 76 and momentum score of 74. Recent results have been mixed.

Montanha intel

Jose Montanha (6-1) carries a CFR of 65.6 with a chin rating of 70 and momentum score of 50. Has been struggling in recent outings.

Key angles

Jose Montanha's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Jhonata Diniz's momentum advantage reflects superior recent form

The low confidence rating suggests a close fight

The model gives Jose Montanha a 63.6% win probability

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Jhonata Diniz has a legitimate path to victory

Jhonata Diniz's superior durability could prove decisive in a war of attrition

Diniz
Montanha
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
79"
Reach
34
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Diniz
Montanha
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.5
45.0
Performance Avg
35
Quality of Victory
74
Momentum Score
Diniz
Montanha
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
60%
Strike Accuracy
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Diniz
Montanha
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diniz
Montanha
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
Moderate
Verdict
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Strikes absorbed / min
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
1/7 fights
Diniz
Montanha
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
Diniz
Montanha
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Diniz
Montanha
Striking4.5 / 0.0Volume6.5 / 0.0Grappling1.6 / 0.0Wrestling1.1 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
Diniz
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Montanha
Diniz
Attacking
63HEAD7BODY7LEGS77 landed
Absorbing
88HEAD12BODY7LEGS107 absorbed

Diniz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.2W5.0W5.1L4.5W4.7L2024-042024-082024-112025-062025-10
WinLossTrend

Diniz · Last 5

Upcoming
Jose Montanha
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Mario PintoRating 4.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Alvin HinesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 5.1
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Dec · R3
Karl WilliamsRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08

Montanha · Last 1

Upcoming
Jhonata Diniz
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

News & Media

Jhonata Diniz · Jose Montanha
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