UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
62%
Mesquita
38%
Mullins
Win Probability
Bia
Bia Mesquita
"The Lady GOAT"
7 – 0
5'4"67" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakSubmission Hunter
CFR 79
Melissa
Melissa Mullins
"No Mess"
7 – 2
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Mesquita

A battle of contrasting styles as Bia Mesquita and Melissa Mullins clash on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card

Bia Mesquita (7-0) meets Melissa Mullins (7-2) in what promises to be a compelling matchup on the UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi card. The classic striker-vs-grappler dynamic defines this matchup, with Melissa Mullins wanting to keep it standing and Bia Mesquita looking to take it to the mat. The CFR gap tells a clear story — Bia Mesquita's rating significantly outpaces Melissa Mullins's, su…

Mesquita intel

Bia Mesquita (7-0) carries a CFR of 79.2 with a chin rating of 100 and momentum score of 100. Currently on strong form.

Mullins intel

Melissa Mullins (7-2) carries a CFR of 49.4 with a chin rating of 76 and momentum score of 58. Recent results have been mixed.

Key angles

Bia Mesquita's superior CFR rating indicates an overall talent advantage

Melissa Mullins's striking superiority should control the stand-up game

Bia Mesquita's grappling advantage could dictate where this fight takes place

Melissa Mullins's chin vulnerability could be exploited

Bia Mesquita's high finish rate makes a stoppage likely

Risk flags

This is a close fight — Melissa Mullins has a legitimate path to victory

Mesquita
Mullins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
+68"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mesquita
Mullins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
79.2
49.4
71.0
Performance Avg
44.0
52
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
58
Mesquita
Mullins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
55%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Mesquita
Mullins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mesquita
Mullins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/7 fights
Chin rating based on
5/9 fights
Mesquita
Mullins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
58
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Mesquita
Mullins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mesquita
Mullins
Striking2.0 / 6.0Volume2.0 / 5.0Grappling8.0 / 1.2Wrestling5.6 / 0.8Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure10.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Mesquita
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Mullins
Mesquita
Attacking
16HEAD1BODY1LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Mullins
Attacking
50HEAD11BODY4LEGS65 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD14BODY5LEGS50 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mesquita targets the head (89% of attacks) — Mullins absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Mullins targets the head (77% of attacks) — Mesquita absorbs 33% of strikes there

Mesquita · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0106.1W5.1W2025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Mullins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.3W3.4L5.7W5.8L2023-102024-042024-112025-06
WinLossTrend

Mesquita · Last 3

Upcoming
Melissa Mullins
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Montse RendonRating 5.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Irina AlekseevaRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10

Mullins · Last 5

Upcoming
Bia Mesquita
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Daria ZhelezniakovaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · KO · R2
Klaudia SygulaRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Nora CornolleRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · Dec · R3
Irina AlekseevaRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10

News & Media

Bia Mesquita · Melissa Mullins
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