Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins — UFC Prediction, Odds & Win Probability

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi

Las Vegas, USA

20 Jun 2026

Catchweight

62%

Mesquita

38%

Mullins

Win Probability

Bia Mesquita

"The Lady GOAT"

7 – 0

5'4"67" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight win streakSubmission Hunter

CFR 79

Melissa Mullins

"No Mess"

7 – 2

Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"

CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Mesquita

One of women's MMA's premier grapplers makes her case for a title shot.

Bia Mesquita is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion who has translated her mat dominance into a 7-0 UFC record with a 100% finish rate. At a momentum of 100, she enters this fight as one of the most dangerous grapplers in the women's strawweight division. Mullins (7-2) is a striker (style 6.0) who will need to keep Mesquita on the outside to survive. The CFR gap here — 79.2 to 49.4 — is substant…

Mesquita intel

Mesquita at peak momentum with a 100% finish rate. Her BJJ is the best in the division and she is relentless in the clinch.

Mullins intel

Mullins has genuine striking ability (style 6.0) and a decent finish rate (50%), but she has never faced a grappler of Mesquita's calibre.

Key angles

How quickly Mesquita secures the first takedown

Whether Mullins can create separation and land volume before being taken down

Risk flags

Mullins has a finish rate of 50% — one exchange on the feet could change things

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Mesquita

Mullins

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'4"

Height

+5'7"

67"

Reach

+68"

Age

+34

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Mesquita

Mullins

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

79.2

49.4

71.0

Performance Avg

44.0

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

Mesquita

Mullins

Striking

Significant strikes per minute & accuracy

0.7

1.1

56%

Strike Accuracy

55%

2.0

Striking Style Score (/10)

6.0

0 KOs

KO Finishes

1 KOs

Mesquita

Mullins

Grappling

Takedowns, submissions & wrestling

8.0

/ 10

1.2

/ 10

5.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.8

10.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Mesquita

Mullins

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

100

Never stopped

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

—

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

3/7 fights

Chin rating based on

5/9 fights

Mesquita

Mullins

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

Upcoming

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R2

Last 5

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · KO · R2

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Mesquita

Mullins

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

100%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mesquita

Mullins

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

2.0

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.0

8.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.2

5.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.8

10.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

10.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.0

2.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.0

Mesquita

Strike Zones

Career patterns

Mullins

Mesquita

Attacking

18 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Mullins

Attacking

65 landed

Absorbing

50 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Mesquita targets the head (89% of attacks) — Mullins absorbs 62% of strikes there

🎯Mullins targets the head (77% of attacks) — Mesquita absorbs 33% of strikes there

Mesquita · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6

WinLossTrend

Mullins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0

WinLossTrend

Mesquita · Last 3

Upcoming

Melissa Mullins

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

W · Sub · R1

Montse RendonRating 5.1

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03

W · Sub · R2

Irina AlekseevaRating 6.1

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10

Mullins · Last 5

Upcoming

Bia Mesquita

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06

L · Dec · R3

Daria ZhelezniakovaRating 5.8

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06

W · KO · R2

Klaudia SygulaRating 5.7

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11

L · KO · R2

Nora CornolleRating 3.4

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04

W · Dec · R3

Irina AlekseevaRating 5.3

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10

News & Media

Bia Mesquita · Melissa Mullins

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