METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
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A flyweight coin flip — Almabayev's volume against Johnson's durability in a fight the model barely separates
When the model gives you 52%, the honest answer is that it doesn't know, and neither does anyone else. Asu Almabayev (23-3) and Charles Johnson (19-8) represent a genuinely competitive flyweight matchup where output consistency and in-fight adjustments will determine the outcome rather than any pre-fight structural advantage. Almabayev is the more experienced fighter in terms of record and should…
Asu Almabayev is 23-3 and brings deep flyweight experience and high volume output to this matchup. His CFR of 57.9 is respectable without being elite, and he'll need every round to build a scoreboard case.
Charles Johnson is 19-8 and has shown durability across elite-level competition. His CFR of 53.8 is close enough to Almabayev's to make the CFR model essentially useless as a predictor here.
Volume vs durability — can Johnson absorb Almabayev's output long enough to find his own moments?
Flyweight pace is relentless — conditioning in the third round may decide it
Johnson's takedowns could flip the script if Almabayev becomes predictable on the feet
The CFR gap is within noise — Johnson winning is not an upset, it's a plausible result
Any grappling sequence that Johnson controls could earn rounds on the scorecards
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10