UFC Freedom 250
Washington, USA
14 Jun 2026
Catchweight
VS
55%
Topuria
45%
Gaethje
Win Probability
Ilia
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
170
5'7"69" reachOrthodox29 yrs9-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 82
Justin
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
275
Striker2-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'11"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Topuria

Undefeated two-division champion meets the most violent man in lightweight history in a title unification at the White House

The White House lawn has never seen anything like what Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje are about to deliver. This is a unification bout between two champions who couldn't be more different in how they've arrived at this moment — Topuria the surgical technician who has dismantled everyone in his path without a single professional loss, and Gaethje the career berserker whose idea of defence has alwa…

Topuria intel

Ilia Topuria (17-0) is the unified featherweight and lightweight champion seeking to cement his legacy. At 29, he's in his athletic prime with a perfect chin rating of 100 and a 77.8% finish rate. His striking accuracy and power at range make him an incredibly difficult puzzle to solve.

Gaethje intel

Justin Gaethje (27-5) brings a 12-year career of relentless violence to this title unification. He lands 6.48 significant strikes per minute at 60.25% accuracy but his chin rating of just 10 is a massive red flag. He has won the interim title but faces the most technically complete opponent of his career.

Key angles

Gaethje's chin rating of 10 vs Topuria's 100 is the defining stat

Topuria's accuracy means Gaethje can't rely on slipping punches like in previous wars

Gaethje's leg kicks could neutralise Topuria's movement early

First fighter to hold three UFC titles if Topuria wins

The unique White House venue adds an unpredictable atmosphere element

Risk flags

Gaethje's early leg kicks could compromise Topuria's mobility

If Gaethje can survive the first two rounds and drag this deep, his cardio advantage may emerge

Topuria
Gaethje
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+70"
29+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Topuria
Gaethje
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
82.3
66.1
77.5
Performance Avg
63.6
62
Quality of Victory
62
100
Momentum Score
100
Topuria
Gaethje
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
62%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Topuria
Gaethje
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Topuria
Gaethje
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
Strikes absorbed / min
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
16/32 fights
Topuria
Gaethje
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
9-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R2
Topuria
Gaethje
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
78%
60%
6
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Topuria
Gaethje
Striking8.7 / 7.3Volume3.8 / 4.5Grappling1.4 / 1.0Wrestling1.0 / 0.7Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure8.4 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.5
Topuria
Strike Zones
Career patterns
Gaethje
Topuria
Attacking
103HEAD34BODY14LEGS151 landed
Absorbing
57HEAD29BODY21LEGS107 absorbed
Gaethje
Attacking
291HEAD31BODY79LEGS401 landed
Absorbing
206HEAD135BODY33LEGS374 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Topuria targets the head (68% of attacks) — Gaethje absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Gaethje targets the head (73% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 53% of strikes there

Topuria · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.3W5.0W6.0W6.3W4.6W6.6W6.3W6.4W2020-102022-032024-022025-06
WinLossTrend

Gaethje · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W4.0L4.7L5.0W5.5W5.0W6.0W2.1L5.3W2.9L5.5W6.4W5.1L5.5W6.2W2017-072019-032021-112024-042026-01
WinLossTrend

Topuria · Last 5

Upcoming
Justin Gaethje
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Max HollowayRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06

Gaethje · Last 5

Upcoming
Ilia Topuria
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
W · Dec · R5
Paddy PimblettRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · KO · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

News & Media

Ilia Topuria · Justin Gaethje
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