UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Featherweight
VS
40%
Emmett
60%
Mitchell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:57
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mitchell
Mitchell holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Emmett has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Emmett throws more volume but Mitchell connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Emmett's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Emmett
Mitchell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
41
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Emmett
Mitchell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.2
55.7
46.3
Performance Avg
48.6
38
Quality of Victory
31
15
Momentum Score
100
Emmett
Mitchell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Emmett
Mitchell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.8
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Emmett
Mitchell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Emmett
Mitchell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Emmett
Mitchell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
22%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Emmett
Mitchell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.6
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
EmmettMitchell
Strike Zones
Emmett
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedMitchell
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Emmett targets the head (50% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Emmett
RND
Mitchell
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Emmett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Mitchell · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Emmett · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kevin VallejosRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Youssef ZalalRating 2.5Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
Mitchell · Last 5
Upcoming
Victor HenryUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaRating 4.3Submission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12