METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Featherweight
VS
39%
Emmett
61%
Mitchell
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:57
★ Official Result
Josh EmmettwinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:57
def. Bryce Mitchell · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mitchell
→
Actual result
Emmett wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Mitchell holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Emmett has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Emmett's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mitchell has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EmmettMitchell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Emmett
Mitchell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
70"
41
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Emmett
Mitchell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.2
57.3
46.3
Performance Avg
50.2
38
Quality of Victory
32
15
Momentum Score
100
Emmett
Mitchell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
4.6
Style: Pressure
4.4
6.0
Style: Volume
7.1
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Emmett
Mitchell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Emmett
Mitchell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
13/22 fights
Emmett
Mitchell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
Emmett
Mitchell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
30%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Emmett
Mitchell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
EmmettMitchell
Strike Zones
Emmett
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedMitchell
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Emmett targets the head (50% of attacks) — Mitchell absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Emmett
RND
Mitchell
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Emmett · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kevin VallejosKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Youssef ZalalSubmission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Bryce MitchellKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Ilia TopuriaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
Mitchell · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Santiago LunaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R2
Jean SilvaSubmission
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R3
Kron GracieKO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R1
Josh EmmettKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12