★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
Saitama, Japan
25 Feb 2012
Lightweight
VS
57%
Edgar
43%
Henderson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edgar
This is a genuine toss-up — Edgar at 57% vs Henderson at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Edgar throws more volume but Henderson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Edgar's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Henderson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edgar
Henderson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+70"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Edgar
Henderson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.4
19.3
48.0
Performance Avg
51.8
39
Quality of Victory
34
68
Momentum Score
84
Edgar
Henderson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.8
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
10
2
Body
6
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance13
2Clinch2
2Ground1
Edgar
Henderson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.4
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edgar
Henderson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/34 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Edgar
Henderson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
68
84
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
Edgar
Henderson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
18%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
12
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edgar
Henderson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
EdgarHenderson
Strike Zones
Edgar
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedHenderson
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edgar targets the head (67% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Henderson targets the head (63% of attacks) — Edgar absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edgar
RND
Henderson
0/0R00/0
Edgar · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Henderson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Edgar · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Chris GutierrezRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
L · KO · R3
Marlon VeraRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · KO · R1
Cory SandhagenRating 3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
W · Dec · R5
Pedro MunhozRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Chan Sung JungRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie · 2019-12
Henderson · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Sub · R4
Brandon ThatchRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
W · Sub · R4
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06