UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Milwaukee, USA
14 Aug 2011
Lightweight
VS
69%
Miller
31%
Henderson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miller
Miller holds a meaningful edge at 69% per the CFR ratings — but Henderson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Miller throws more volume but Henderson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Henderson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miller
Henderson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
71"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Miller
Henderson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
19.3
51.5
Performance Avg
51.8
45
Quality of Victory
34
28
Momentum Score
84
Miller
Henderson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
17
1
Body
4
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
4Distance10
0Clinch0
0Ground16
Miller
Henderson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.4
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Henderson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Miller
Henderson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
84
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
Miller
Henderson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
18%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
14
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Henderson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
MillerHenderson
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedHenderson
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (75% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Henderson targets the head (65% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Henderson
0/0R00/0
Miller · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Henderson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Miller · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
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W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Henderson · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Sub · R4
Brandon ThatchRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
W · Sub · R4
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06