UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos
Anaheim, USA
12 Nov 2011
Lightweight
VS
70%
Guida
30%
Henderson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guida
Guida is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Henderson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Henderson has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Guida
Henderson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guida
Henderson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
19.3
40.7
Performance Avg
51.8
35
Quality of Victory
34
78
Momentum Score
84
Guida
Henderson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.8
36%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
5
1
Body
5
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch4
0Ground6
Guida
Henderson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.4
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Henderson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Guida
Henderson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
84
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
Guida
Henderson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
18%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Henderson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.6
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
GuidaHenderson
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedHenderson
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the body (50% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Henderson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Henderson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Henderson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Henderson · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Sub · R4
Brandon ThatchRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
W · Sub · R4
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06