UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Las Vegas, USA
11 Dec 2021
Featherweight
VS
43%
Emmett
57%
Ige
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ige
This is a genuine toss-up — Emmett at 43% vs Ige at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Emmett throws more volume but Ige connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Emmett's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ige has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Emmett
Ige
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
70"
Reach
+71"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Emmett
Ige
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.2
48.8
46.3
Performance Avg
46.3
38
Quality of Victory
42
15
Momentum Score
53
Emmett
Ige
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
38%
Strike Accuracy
49%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
16
1
Body
4
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
20Distance21
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Emmett
Ige
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Emmett
Ige
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
60
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
21/30 fights
Emmett
Ige
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Emmett
Ige
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
55%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Emmett
Ige
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
EmmettIge
Strike Zones
Emmett
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedIge
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Emmett targets the head (95% of attacks) — Ige absorbs 95% of strikes there
🎯Ige targets the head (73% of attacks) — Emmett absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Emmett
RND
Ige
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Emmett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Ige · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Emmett · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kevin VallejosRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Youssef ZalalRating 2.5Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
Ige · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Melquizael CostaRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 5.5Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06