UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira
Portland, USA
29 Aug 2009
Heavyweight
VS
57%
Russow
43%
McCully
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MR
Mike Russow
15 – 3
6'1"73" reachOrthodox49 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 18
JM
Justin McCully
"The Insane One"
11 – 5
Well-Rounded50 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'1"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Russow

This is a genuine toss-up — Russow at 57% vs McCully at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: McCully throws more volume but Russow connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Russow's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Russow
McCully
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
73"
Reach
73"
49+
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Russow
McCully
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.6
13.5
45.8
Performance Avg
35.0
32
Quality of Victory
25
79
Momentum Score
50
Russow
McCully
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
0.6
34%
Strike Accuracy
34%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
5
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance3
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Russow
McCully
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Russow
McCully
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
86
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Russow
McCully
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
50
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Russow
McCully
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Russow
McCully
Striking3.8 / 1.0Volume5.3 / 9.0Grappling1.2 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Russow
Strike Zones
McCully
Russow
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
McCully
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯McCully targets the head (100% of attacks) — Russow absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Russow
RND
McCully
0/0R00/0

Russow · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0104.5W5.5W4.2W4.5W1.5L2.8L2009-082010-052011-032012-012012-062013-01
WinLossTrend

McCully · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2007-042008-072008-122009-08
WinLossTrend

Russow · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Shawn JordanRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01
L · KO · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 · 2012-06
W · Dec · R3
Jon Olav EinemoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis · 2012-01
W · R2
Jon MadsenRating 4.2
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
W · KO · R3
Todd DuffeeRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05

McCully · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Mike RussowRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
W · Dec · R3
Eddie SanchezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night - Fight for the Troops · 2008-12
L · Sub · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Dec · R3
Antoni HardonkRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard · 2007-04

News & Media

Mike Russow · Justin McCully
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