UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Rotterdam, Netherlands
8 May 2016
Lightweight
VS
33%
Tuck
67%
Emmett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JT
Jon Tuck
"Super Saiyan"
10 – 5
5'11"73" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
Josh
Josh Emmett
19 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'6"
CFR 37

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Emmett

Emmett holds a meaningful edge at 67% per the CFR ratings — but Tuck has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Emmett throws more volume but Tuck connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Emmett has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tuck
Emmett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'6"
73"+
Reach
70"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tuck
Emmett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
37.2
45.2
Performance Avg
46.3
46
Quality of Victory
38
54
Momentum Score
15
Tuck
Emmett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
39%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
14
6
Body
4
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
22Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Tuck
Emmett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tuck
Emmett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
26
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/15 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Tuck
Emmett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
15
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Tuck
Emmett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tuck
Emmett
Striking3.4 / 5.2Volume2.9 / 6.0Grappling4.6 / 1.4Wrestling3.2 / 1.0Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure6.6 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Tuck
Strike Zones
Emmett
Tuck
Attacking
14HEAD6BODY2LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD4BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Emmett
Attacking
14HEAD4BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD6BODY2LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tuck targets the head (64% of attacks) — Emmett absorbs 64% of strikes there
🎯Emmett targets the head (74% of attacks) — Tuck absorbs 74% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tuck
RND
Emmett
0/0R00/0

Tuck · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.6L5.5L5.0W6.7L2012-112014-092016-112018-08
WinLossTrend

Emmett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.6L5.6W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W3.7L7.9L6.0W7.0L2.5L3.6L2016-052018-022022-062025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Tuck · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Drew DoberRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Sub · R1
Takanori GomiRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Damien BrownRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Sub · R1
Tae Hyun BangRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · 2015-05

Emmett · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Kevin VallejosRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Youssef ZalalRating 2.5
Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06

News & Media

Jon Tuck · Josh Emmett
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