METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Lightweight
VS
62%
Emmett
38%
Holtzman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Josh EmmettwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Scott Holtzman · UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Emmett
→
Actual result
Emmett wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Emmett holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Holtzman has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Emmett's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holtzman has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EmmettHoltzman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Emmett
Holtzman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Emmett
Holtzman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.2
23.1
46.3
Performance Avg
40.6
38
Quality of Victory
32
15
Momentum Score
53
Emmett
Holtzman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.2
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
4.6
Style: Pressure
3.6
6.0
Style: Volume
5.7
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
24
15
Body
2
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
24Distance16
21Clinch10
2Ground0
Emmett
Holtzman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Emmett
Holtzman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
48
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Emmett
Holtzman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Emmett
Holtzman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Emmett
Holtzman
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
EmmettHoltzman
Strike Zones
Emmett
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedHoltzman
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Emmett targets the head (55% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Holtzman targets the head (92% of attacks) — Emmett absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Emmett
RND
Holtzman
0/0R00/0
Emmett · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kevin VallejosKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Youssef ZalalSubmission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Bryce MitchellKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Ilia TopuriaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerDecision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
Dong Hyun MaUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08