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UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Lightweight
VS
54%
Emmett
46%
Holtzman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Josh
Josh Emmett
19 – 7
5'6"70" reachOrthodox41 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 37
SH
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"
CFR 32
★ Official Result
Josh EmmettwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Scott Holtzman · UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Emmett
→
Actual result
Emmett wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Emmett at 54% vs Holtzman at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Holtzman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Emmett's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holtzman has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
EmmettHoltzman
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Emmett
Holtzman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"+
Reach
69"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Emmett
Holtzman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.2
31.5
46.3
Performance Avg
40.6
38
Quality of Victory
32
15
Momentum Score
53
Emmett
Holtzman
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
1.8
38%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
26
Head
24
15
Body
2
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
24Distance16
21Clinch10
2Ground0
Emmett
Holtzman
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Emmett
Holtzman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
48
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Emmett
Holtzman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
53
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Emmett
Holtzman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
29%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Emmett
Holtzman
Striking5.2 / 2.5Volume6.0 / 5.7Grappling1.4 / 2.5Wrestling1.0 / 1.8Submission0.0 / 1.4Pressure4.6 / 3.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.6
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Emmett
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Emmett
Attacking
26HEAD15BODY6LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
24HEAD2BODY0LEGS26 absorbed
Holtzman
Attacking
24HEAD2BODY0LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD15BODY6LEGS47 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Emmett targets the head (55% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Holtzman targets the head (92% of attacks) — Emmett absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Emmett
RND
Holtzman
0/0R00/0

Emmett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.6L5.6W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W3.7L7.9L6.0W7.0L2.5L3.6L2016-052018-022022-062025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Holtzman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W6.7L4.5W5.6L4.5W4.5W5.5W5.5L4.2W4.9W2.5L3.8L6.0L2015-082017-042019-082022-12
WinLossTrend

Emmett · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Kevin VallejosRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Youssef ZalalRating 2.5
Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06

Holtzman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
Dong Hyun MaRating 4.2
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08

News & Media

Josh Emmett · Scott Holtzman
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