UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2025
Featherweight
VS
36%
Emmett
64%
Murphy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Josh
Josh Emmett
19 – 7
5'6"70" reachOrthodox41 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Lerone
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
17 – 1
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'9"
CFR 66

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Murphy

Murphy holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Emmett has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Emmett throws more volume but Murphy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Emmett's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Emmett
Murphy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
+73"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Emmett
Murphy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.2
65.5
46.3
Performance Avg
57.7
38
Quality of Victory
36
15
Momentum Score
100
Emmett
Murphy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
38%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
10
0
Body
1
1
Leg
7
RangeRange
11Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Emmett
Murphy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Emmett
Murphy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/26 fights
Chin rating based on
11/18 fights
Emmett
Murphy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
15
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
Emmett
Murphy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
33%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Emmett
Murphy
Striking5.2 / 5.1Volume6.0 / 7.1Grappling1.4 / 1.6Wrestling1.0 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.6 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
Emmett
Strike Zones
Murphy
Emmett
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY7LEGS18 absorbed
Murphy
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY7LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Emmett targets the head (91% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Murphy targets the head (56% of attacks) — Emmett absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Emmett
RND
Murphy
0/0R00/0

Emmett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.0W2.6L5.6W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W3.7L7.9L6.0W7.0L2.5L3.6L2016-052018-022022-062025-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Murphy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.1W4.7W5.3W5.2W4.8W5.0W5.2W4.6W5.1W6.8L2020-072023-032024-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Emmett · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Kevin VallejosRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Youssef ZalalRating 2.5
Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06

Murphy · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · KO · R1
Aaron PicoRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R5
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

News & Media

Josh Emmett · Lerone Murphy
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