UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till
Gdansk, Poland
21 Oct 2017
Featherweight
VS
32%
Arantes
68%
Emmett
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Emmett
Emmett holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Arantes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Emmett throws more volume but Arantes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Arantes's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Emmett has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Arantes
Emmett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
73"+
Reach
70"
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Arantes
Emmett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.8
37.2
43.8
Performance Avg
46.3
43
Quality of Victory
38
64
Momentum Score
15
Arantes
Emmett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
12
4
Body
5
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
14Distance21
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Arantes
Emmett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
2.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Arantes
Emmett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
26
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/28 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Arantes
Emmett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
15
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Arantes
Emmett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Arantes
Emmett
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
ArantesEmmett
Strike Zones
Arantes
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedEmmett
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Arantes targets the head (57% of attacks) — Emmett absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Emmett targets the head (57% of attacks) — Arantes absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Arantes
RND
Emmett
0/0R00/0
0/0R40/0
Arantes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Emmett · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Arantes · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Song YadongRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Josh EmmettRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till · 2017-10
L · Dec · R3
Erik PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Sub · R2
Jerrod SandersRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Sub · R1
Yves JabouinRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
Emmett · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kevin VallejosRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Youssef ZalalRating 2.5Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Bryce MitchellRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Ilia TopuriaRating 7.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06