★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
Milwaukee, USA
31 Aug 2013
Lightweight
VS
51%
Henderson
49%
Pettis
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Henderson
This is a genuine toss-up — Henderson at 51% vs Pettis at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Pettis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Pettis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Henderson's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pettis has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Henderson
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Henderson
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
18.8
51.8
Performance Avg
52.6
34
Quality of Victory
51
84
Momentum Score
72
Henderson
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
3
Body
6
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance9
6Clinch0
1Ground0
Henderson
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Henderson
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
12
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.7 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/31 fights
Chin rating based on
20/34 fights
Henderson
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
72
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R4
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Henderson
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
18%
64%
0
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
4
9
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Henderson
Pettis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
HendersonPettis
Strike Zones
Henderson
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedPettis
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Henderson targets the legs (45% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the body (67% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Henderson
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0
Henderson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Henderson · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Sub · R4
Brandon ThatchRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos · 2014-08
W · Sub · R4
Rustam KhabilovRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Khabilov · 2014-06
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03